The Great Divide

MAHMOUD Ahmadinejad travelled to Riyadh in March for his first official talks with King Abdullah aimed at defusing what the Saudi monarch had termed “a powder keg waiting to explode”.

During a flying visit that lasted just a few hours, the leader of the Arab state most closely allied to America met with the embodiment of Washington’s ‘axis of evil’ to discuss seething sectarian tensions in the region.

Their talks focused on the religiously-fuelled violence in Iraq, the political crises in Lebanon and Israel-Palestine which had both developed worrying sectarian overtones, as well as Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The meeting between the leaders of the Middle East’s oil-rich Sunni and Shia powerhouses raised hopes of improving intra-Muslim relations across the Islamic world.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions

While complicated, the fundamental difference between Islam’s two main branches comes down to the fact that Shia revere the direct descendants of Mohammed, while Sunnis believe their religious leaders do not necessarily have to belong to the house of the prophet. That difference has sparked bloody battles for the past 1,500 years.

While Sunnis account for 85 percent of the world’s Muslims, there has been a Shia resurgence since the September 11 attacks on the United States, which sparked a massive Washington-led effort to reduce the threat posed by followers of the radical form of Sunni Islam espoused by figures such as Osama Bin Laden.

Consequently, the US led the defeat of the Sunni-subsect Taliban in Afghanistan, and ended the Sunni-controlled dictatorship of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Both campaigns benefited the cause of Iranian-influenced Shia Islam.

March’s Ahmadinejad-Abdullah meeting came just days before the United Nations Security Council was due to discuss tougher sanctions on Iran for its continued uranium enrichment efforts in violation of UN resolutions.

During their discussion, the Saudi king is thought to have added his voice to the international clamour for Tehran to comply with United Nations resolutions calling for a cessation of its uranium enrichment programme.

Saudi Arabia shares the misgivings of the US over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which appear to be aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Tehran insists its programme is solely intended for generating electricity.

The Riyadh summit coincided with discussions between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany on a resolution aimed at imposing tougher sanctions on Iran for its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment programme. Tehran’s intransigence had raised the prospect of a pre-emptive American or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Washington claimed it had no plans to attack Iran, despite media reports to the contrary and the bolstering of American military presence in the Persian Gulf since the start of 2007.

Arab states were concerned that such an attack could lead to an American-Iranian showdown which would carry devastating consequences for the wider region.

A US U-turn?

The Riyadh summit came a week before a scheduled Baghdad conference between Iraq’s neighbours and leading Western powers to debate how best to neutralise the country’s continuing sectarian fighting. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria had all accepted Baghdad’s invitation to attend, as had the United States.

Although it did not represent the opening of a new US-Iranian diplomatic channel, the meeting was significant as exchanges between the two countries had essentially been limited to mutual recriminations since Washington severed all diplomatic relations with Teheran in 1980 following the seizure of its embassy in Iran by Islamist students.

That a senior American delegation was prepared to sit around a table with Iranian officials, albeit to discuss Iraq rather than bilateral relations, raised hopes that the US was ready to use dialogue rather than sabre-rattling as its chief means of keeping the Iranian regime’s regional ambitions in check.

Hopes that the US was implementing a dramatic U-turn vis-à-vis its attitude towards ‘axis of evil’ states were augmented by Washington’s seeming preparedness to engage in discussions with both Iran and Syria about the potentially positive role they could play in Iraq.

In March, Assistant Secretary of State Ellen Sauerbrey was scheduled to travel to Damascus for discussions on the humanitarian plight of some one million Iraqi refugees in Syria.

While not being seen as part of a bilateral mission, the visit was the first by a high-ranking US official to Syria since February 2005, when the American ambassador was withdrawn from Damascus amid suspicions that Syrian officials were involved in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The Saudi-Iranian Riyadh summit came after what was perceived as a spirited Saudi diplomatic effort to limit Iran’s growing regional influence, spearheaded by the veteran Saudi diplomat Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who is known to have close ties to the White House.

Iran had come under regional suspicion for attempting to spread its Islamic revolution to Iraq through its 1980-1988 war. This suspicion was heightened by the country’s support of a plot to overthrow Bahrain’s government in 1981 as well as backing Shia militants who bombed Western embassies in Kuwait in 1983.

The political crises in Iraq and Lebanon had further served to strain relations between the two regional heavyweights, as non-Arab Iran sought to extend its burgeoning regional influence by backing Shia militants. This had prompted supporters of the American-backed Iraqi government to accuse Iran of terrorist attacks in the country.

Iraqification of Lebanon

Iran had also been accused of imperialist intentions in Lebanon through its support of the Shia militant group Hezbollah’s attempt to topple the Saudi and American-backed government of Fouad Siniora.

Last November, all five Shia ministers resigned from Lebanon’s cabinet as Hezbollah launched a campaign to bring down a government it viewed as corrupt, unrepresentative and subservient to the US.

With the support of most Shia and some Christian groups, Hezbollah’s three-month demonstration brought the country’s economy, still reeling after 34 days of Israeli bombardment last Summer, to a standstill. It also sparked spates of sectarian violence on the streets between predominantly Sunni government supporters and mainly Shia backers of the opposition in January, which left nine people dead and hundreds injured.

The crisis was perceived in many circles as a proxy power-struggle between Shia-led Iran which funds, arms and trains Hezbollah, and the US and its regional ally Saudi Arabia, which has extremely close ties to Siniora’s Sunni-led government.

Amid fears of the ‘Iraqification’ of Lebanon, Tehran and Riyadh began working together in January to defuse the crisis on the streets, attempting to find a mutually acceptable compromise to the situation that would allow it to be resolved without any party losing face.

Regional Sunni-led regimes had raised concerns about the destabilizing impact of Iran backing its co-religionists in the region.

While Shia Muslims represent the majority in Iraq (some 65 percent) and Iran (90 percent), they only comprise 15 percent of the world’s Muslims, and analysts suggested region-wide sectarian tensions may work against Iranian-backed groups in the long run.

Concerned about Iran’s increasing isolation, the threat of more UN sanctions and the huge numerical distortion between Sunnis and Shias across the Middle East, Ahmadinejad was keen to build bridges with Saudi Arabia and bolster Tehran’s status in the region.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s status as the region’s leading peace broker had been enhanced in February by its facilitation of the Mecca accord between rival Palestinian political factions Fatah and Hamas.

Improving bilateral ties was a key step to improving chances of success at an Arab League summit due to be held in Saudi Arabia at the end of March.

IRAN – SHIA HEAVYWEIGHT
Mineral-rich Iran is home to 10 percent of the world’s oil reserves and, as the ancient nation of Persia, became one of the world’s greatest empires. Despite being one of the first countries to be conquered by Islamic armies from Arabia in the seventh century, it has managed to retain its own language and cultural identity.

At 1.65 million sq km, Iran borders the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea. Wedged between Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, it also borders Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan.

Its 70 million-strong population are 90 percent Shia and around 10 percent Sunni although there is a small Christian community.

The country modernised and secularised under the Iranian army officer and self-appointed Shah, Reza Khan, who seized control in 1921, and later passed on power to his son, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.

Rising religious and political opposition to the Shah’s rule finally sparked widespread unrest in 1978, prompting the Shah to flee the country in January 1979.

The exiled religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini returned from 15 years of exile to establish a new, theocratic republic guided by Islamic principles. When he died on June 3, 1989, the Assembly of Experts – an elected body of senior clerics – chose the outgoing president of the republic, Ali Khamenei, to be his successor as Supreme Leader.

Shia clerics – known as mullahs – dominate politics and nearly all aspects of Iranian life. Khamenei selected the six-member Guardian Council, which has powers to pass legislation and can veto would-be election candidates. The Guardian Council also appoints the head of the judiciary, military leaders, the head of radio and TV and Friday prayer leaders.

Attempts at implementing a reform programme in the late 1990s by the moderate president Mohammad Khatami were frustrated by the blocking tactics of conservative politicians.

The 2005 election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative stalwart, completed the reconsolidation of conservative power in Iran’s government. An ultra-conservative former revolutionary guards officer and mayor of Tehran, Ahmadinejad has alienated support internationally with widely condemned comments calling for Israel to be “wiped off the map,” and claiming the Holocaust was a “myth”.

Inept domestic policies resulted in his allies taking a firm beating during local elections last December, Ahmedinejad’s first popularity test since coming to power.

SAUDI ARABIA – SUNNI BASTION
A third larger than its regional sparring partner, but with just a third of Iran’s population, Saudi Arabia owes its global bargaining power to its vast oil reserves and its status as the birthplace of Islam.

Bordering the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia lies north of Yemen, with which it shares a 1,500 km border, and south of Iraq, with which it shares a 800 km border. It also neighbours Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE.

The world’s largest exporter of petrol, Saudi Arabia is home to 25 percent of global oil reserves. Its petroleum sector accounts for 75 percent of budget revenues and nearly half the national GDP.

The birthplace of the prophet Mohammed, it is also home to both Mecca and Medina, Islam’s two holiest shrines.

Since the 18th century the country has been ruled by the al-Saud family whose adherence to Wahhabism, a strict form of Sunni Islam, has imbued a strong sense of religious fervour in the country while making it a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism.

Due to its monopoly of power during the 20th century, the al-Saud dynasty was able to focus its efforts on developing the country’s regional influence while gradually implementing domestic reforms in order to undercut the influence of extremist elements.

However, its alliance with the US Middle East policy – exemplified by its allowing American troops to be based on its soil after Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait – drew widespread resentment in the Arab world.

Local support grew for militant Islamic groups such as Osama Bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, and many of those involved in the September 11 attacks on the US were of Saudi origin. Al Qaeda sympathisers are thought to have been behind suicide attacks in Riyadh in 2003 that left 35 dead.

Continued attacks since then have amplified demands for political reform, which resulted in municipal elections in 2005.

While respecting Saudi traditions, King Abdullah is seen as being untainted by corruption and favours a balanced reform programme. With a reputation as a supporter of Arab nationalists, he has gained regional acclaim for his criticism of US support for Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory.